How does Crude oil affect the economy?

Undoubtedly, it is really daunting and dismaying to know that increase in the oil prices affect the economy. Oil prices have always been fluctuating and that can either lead to inflation or deflation in the economy. Let us delve deep into this article which tells us how crude oil affects the economy.

When oil prices rise?

Oil pricing is such an essential component that its demand is always growing among developing countries like India and China. Due to the industrialization and urbanization in the economies of developing countries, the need for oil is still multiplying. It is also known that there was a heart-stopping increase in the price of oil in the year 2007 and 2008. Consequently, the budget of all the middle-class families shook and disturbed. You may be surprised to know that the oil and gasoline prices are interrelated to each other. The spike in the cost of the one leads to the spike in the value of the other.

When oil prices fall?

Undoubtedly, we can find an increased flexibleness in labour markets and updated monetary policies. Due to this, there is a decline in the effect of oil shocks in developing countries. When there is no direct effect of oil on the economy, there is no more inflation, and the situation remains adjusted.

Let’s read some major inputs on the effect of crude oil on the economy:

  • There are a rush and surge in the oil prices due to unexpected tensions in the Middle East countries and lower supply of oil from the oil producing countries
  • India imports approximately 70% of oil which is a significant burden on its finances.
  • Oil import not only leads to a trade deficit for India but this deficit increases with the rise in demand for the crude oil
  • Drastic changes in the prices of oil have led to inflation in the country
  • Change in the price of the oil also leads to change in the value of local currency. There can be a fiscal deficit and less of FII in the economy

Markup: HTML Tags and Formatting

Headings Header one Header two Header three Header four Header five Header six Blockquotes Single line blockquote: Stay hungry. Stay foolish. Multi line blockquote with a cite reference: The HTML <blockquote> Element (or HTML Block Quotation Element) indicates that the enclosed text is an extended quotation. Usually, this is rendered visually by indentation (see Notes … Continue reading “Markup: HTML Tags and Formatting”

Headings

Header one

Header two

Header three

Header four

Header five
Header six

Blockquotes

Single line blockquote:

Stay hungry. Stay foolish.

Multi line blockquote with a cite reference:

The HTML <blockquote> Element (or HTML Block Quotation Element) indicates that the enclosed text is an extended quotation. Usually, this is rendered visually by indentation (see Notes for how to change it). A URL for the source of the quotation may be given using the cite attribute, while a text representation of the source can be given using the <cite> element.

multiple contributors – MDN HTML element reference – blockquote

Tables

Employee Salary
John Doe $1 Because that’s all Steve Jobs needed for a salary.
Jane Doe $100K For all the blogging she does.
Fred Bloggs $100M Pictures are worth a thousand words, right? So Jane x 1,000.
Jane Bloggs $100B With hair like that?! Enough said…

Definition Lists

Definition List Title
Definition list division.
Startup
A startup company or startup is a company or temporary organization designed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model.
#dowork
Coined by Rob Dyrdek and his personal body guard Christopher “Big Black” Boykins, “Do Work” works as a self motivator, to motivating your friends.
Do It Live
I’ll let Bill O’Reilly will explain this one.

Unordered Lists (Nested)

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      • List item one
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Ordered List (Nested)

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HTML Tags

These supported tags come from the WordPress.com code FAQ.

Address Tag

1 Infinite Loop
Cupertino, CA 95014
United States

Anchor Tag (aka. Link)

This is an example of a link.

Abbreviation Tag

The abbreviation srsly stands for “seriously”.

Acronym Tag (deprecated in HTML5)

The acronym ftw stands for “for the win”.

Big Tag (deprecated in HTML5)

These tests are a big deal, but this tag is no longer supported in HTML5.

Cite Tag

“Code is poetry.” —Automattic

Code Tag

This tag styles blocks of code.
.post-title {
margin: 0 0 5px;
font-weight: bold;
font-size: 38px;
line-height: 1.2;
and here's a line of some really, really, really, really long text, just to see how it is handled and to find out how it overflows;
}

You will learn later on in these tests that word-wrap: break-word;will be your best friend.

Delete Tag

This tag will let you strike out text, but this tag is recommended supported in HTML5 (use the <s> instead).

Emphasize Tag

The emphasize tag should italicize text.

Horizontal Rule Tag


This sentence is following a <hr /> tag.

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Keyboard Tag

This scarcely known tag emulates keyboard text, which is usually styled like the <code> tag.

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This tag is for preserving whitespace as typed, such as in poetry or ASCII art.

The Road Not Taken

Robert Frost


  Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
  And sorry I could not travel both          (_/)
  And be one traveler, long I stood         (='.'=)
  And looked down one as far as I could     (")_(")
  To where it bent in the undergrowth;

  Then took the other, as just as fair,
  And having perhaps the better claim,          |_/|
  Because it was grassy and wanted wear;       / @ @ 
  Though as for that the passing there        ( > º < )
  Had worn them really about the same,         `>>x<<´
                                               /  O  
  And both that morning equally lay
  In leaves no step had trodden black.
  Oh, I kept the first for another day!
  Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
  I doubted if I should ever come back.

  I shall be telling this with a sigh
  Somewhere ages and ages hence:
  Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
  I took the one less traveled by,
  And that has made all the difference.


  and here's a line of some really, really, really, really long text, just to see how it is handled and to find out how it overflows;

Quote Tag for short, inline quotes

Developers, developers, developers… –Steve Ballmer

Strike Tag (deprecated in HTML5) and S Tag

This tag shows strike-through text.

Small Tag

This tag shows smaller text.

Strong Tag

This tag shows bold text.

Subscript Tag

Getting our science styling on with H2O, which should push the “2” down.

Superscript Tag

Still sticking with science and Albert Einstein’s E = MC2, which should lift the 2 up.

Teletype Tag (obsolete in HTML5)

This rarely used tag emulates teletype text, which is usually styled like the <code> tag.

Underline Tag deprecated in HTML 4, re-introduced in HTML5 with other semantics

This tag shows underlined text.

Variable Tag

This allows you to denote variables.

The advantages of Mutual Funds

In plain and uncomplicated words, a mutual fund collects money from investors, accumulates it and invests on their behalf. Consequently, it leads to safety and diversification. It’s always recommended to stick to mutual funds that don’t charge you any commission whether you buy or sell them.

Types and benefits of mutual funds:

Equity mutual funds: Did you know that Equity funds are also known as stock funds? So, equity mutual funds majorly invest in stocks. It’s easier to invest in equity mutual funds because when you give money to fund, it is invested in stocks. However, these funds are always on the slippery ground and depend on the market conditions.

Debt Mutual funds: If you ever plan to invest in debt securities, then, debt mutual funds are the ideal solution which is safer and under lock and key. There are further sub-categories of the assets that fall under Debt mutual funds. These are Overnight funds, liquid funds with a maturity of up to 91 days, ultra-short duration funds, low duration fund, low duration fund, money market funds with a maturity of up to 1 year, short duration funds with a time duration between one year and three years, medium duration funds, medium to long duration funds, long duration funds with a time duration of greater than 7 years, dynamic bonds, corporate bond funds, credit risk funds, banking and PSU funds, gilt funds , gilt funds with a fixed duration of 10 years and finally floater funds.

Hybrid mutual funds: If you are looking to invest in a mix of equity and debt funds, then choosing the hybrid mutual funds is a good option for you. Hybrid funds can further be categorized as balanced funds, monthly income plans, and arbitrage funds. If you are cautious and uncaring, then investing in balanced funds can be the most suitable option for you. Those who expect a regular income from their investment in the form of dividends can go for monthly income plans. Similarly, arbitrage funds will give you an opportunity to buy stocks from one market at a reduced price and selling them in another market at a higher price.

Solution-oriented mutual funds: As the name suggests, these mutual funds aim to provide us with solutions like a retirement plan, children education and so on with a lock-in period of 5 years.

You can always refer to SEBI’s schemes and guides and keep yourself updated with the changes in mutual funds plans.

What is portfolio management and why is it important?

Have you ever thought to expand your portfolio while you are on the top of your career and young enough?  Many of us think to do the same, but our priorities change as the needs and environment changes. So, we want you to understand what is portfolio management and why is it essential to secure your future.

What is portfolio management?

There are multiple investment tools available in the trading market. Some of them are stock, derivatives, commodities, mutual funds, IPOs and so on. The efficient selection of the right investment policy which yields to profitable returns and less market risk is called the portfolio management. There can be two types of portfolio namely market portfolio and zero investment portfolio.

Are you future-ready with a profitable portfolio?

We all have abilities to act on investment opportunities in the well-suited areas that further diversify our portfolio. Don’t get confused with jargon-filled phrases. Understand that the investment must be simple enough to safeguard your future. If the fruit garden offers us fruits, bees offer us, honey, then, the stocks should stand for their dividends.

The importance of Portfolio management

The investments have values, so, make sure that you invest wisely. Your fear and pessimistic attitude may destroy your portfolio value more than the recession. So, make sure that you invest according to your income, budget and the ability to take risks. Once you start managing your investment portfolio, you will increase the opportunities to make profits with your experience and knowledge. You can also seek the counsel of an expert portfolio manager who can guide you with the minimum risks as per the latest market trends. Also, if you feel that commodities are fluctuating, and stocks are not paying their required dividends, then you can avail customized investment solutions from the portfolio manager.

Be a sensible investor with different types of portfolio management tips

  • Active portfolio management: If you are looking for a flowing and flourishing profits, then you must rely on a portfolio manager that can give you the best benefits by buying and selling your stocks as per the market movements.
  • Passive Portfolio management: Here, you need to deal with a fixed and settled portfolio.
  • Discretionary Portfolio management: If the fear of getting wrong results get your heart racing, then, you can authorize your portfolio manager to take care of your investments and deal with them on your behalf.
  • Non-discretionary Portfolio management: Every portfolio benefits from the sound advise, market trends, and the ability to take risks. Here, the portfolio manager can instruct and inform you regarding the best decisions to be made. But the authority to take decision lies in the hands of the investor.

The stock market may be at the top and go down out of the blue, and you may be unable to understand the changeableness and whimsy behaviour of the market. The simple tip in such a situation is not to pay attention to many investments but to stay dedicated to your sound strategy.

Communication

Communication is a very important aspect of our lives and is a part of our basic functionality. Communication can be very easily understood as the Basic Exchange of Information. It is nearly impossible to go through a day without the use of Communication. Communication is sending and receiving information between two or more people.

We have discussed communication in layman’s terms, now let’s look at the proper definition of communication.

Communication ( derived from a Latin word communicare, meaning ‘to share’) is the  act  of conveying  meaning  from  one  entity or  group  to  another through  the  use  of  mutually understood sings , symbols and semiotic rules.”

Wikipedia Let’s look at Another definition of communication,

“A process by which information is exchanged between individuals through a common system of symbols , sings or behaviour.”

Merrian-Webster

Now,  let’s compare both  the  definitions. Both the definitions focus on two things which are “exchange of information” and “medium” of exchange of information. For communication, there should be some information which we have to exchange otherwise communication cannot  take  place , secondly the  medium  is  very  important  for the exchange  of  information. Medium can be anything , for example message that we have to share can be sent through a letter/application ( i.e; in written) or can be explained through symbols , like when we wave to someone just to say hello or sometimes we can convey the message using our body language( I.e;- behaviour ).

Communication is so important, that directing abilities of a manager mostly depends upon his/her communication skills. He/she should have the capacity to clearly explain his/her views, ideas, facts, etc. and make the subordinates understand them. How much professional knowledge and intelligence a manger possesses becomes immaterial if he/she is not able to communicate effectively with his/her subordinates and create understanding in them.

The process of communication can be explained in the figure given below:-

The elements involved in the communication process are explained below:-

  1. Sender:- Sender means the person who conveys his thoughts or ideas to the receiver .
  2. Encoding:- it is the process of converting the message into communication symbols such as words , pictures, gestures, etc.
  3. Message:- It is the content of ideas , feelings , suggestions , order, etc. intended to be communicated.
  4. Channel:- channel or media is the path through which encoded message is transmitted to the receiver , e.g., face to face , phone call , internet , etc.
  5. Receiver:- The who receiver communication of the sender.
  6. Decoding:- it is the process of converting encoded symbols of the sender.
  7. Feedback:- it includes all those actions of receiving indicating that he has received and understood the message of sender.
  8. Noise:- Noise means some obstruction or hindrance to communication , e.g., a poor telephone connection, an inattentive receiver , faculty decoding , etc.

Communication can be broadly categorised into two parts.

  1. Verbal communication:- The use of auditory language to exchange information with some other people. It includes sounds , words , or speaking, the tone , volume and pitch  of one’s voice can all contribute to effective verbal communication.
  2. Non-verbal communication:- Communication between people through non-verbal or visual cues . This includes gestures , facial expression, body movement , timming. Touch and anything else that communicate without speaking.

Non-verbal communication is more effective than verbal communication.

Aditya Kaushik
MBA-FP(2018-20)

Abhay Mehrotra

I joined International College of Financial Planning in 2005 and if I remember correctly, mine was the second batch. I wanted to do something different from normal financial Post Graduation programs and PGDFP from ICoFP was the perfect fit for that. Financial planning those days was relatively a lesser known concept and hence I was the lucky one to gain early knowledge about the same.

The faculty was very supportive and helped every student in the best possible manner. I got to learn a lot of new financial concepts and it was pleasure learning from all experienced faculties.

In 2006 as I approached towards the end of my program, I got a campus placement and joined Sharekhan as Relationship manager. I loved joining them since I was always inclined towards stocks and trading. Investment module of our PGDFP program helped me a lot in my job as I had already learnt advance concepts and it became easy for me to work with full confidence.

After that I moved to IL&FS in 2007 in same profile, and at the end of 2007 joined Reliance Money as an Equity Advisor in my home town, Kanpur. Being at a senior profile, I was looking after 120 sub brokers of the entire half of Uttar Pradesh.

In 2009, I left the job to start my own venture which included trading for self and providing one on one training to investors on trading strategies based on technical analysis. With God’s grace, I am doing good in trading and I have trained over 30 students now. Looking forward to do even better.

I also write analysis actively on my blog covering Indian equity and commodity markets and have written ,more than 1500 analytics. My blog address is: www.abhaymehrotra.blogspot.com

The starting point of my career was the placement provided by ICoFP and it indeed played a crucial role in shaping up my career. I feel thankful to my college.

Why Equity Research is Important?

Global equity markets have been on roller coaster ride since beginning of 2018. India being no exception! Starting off on high note, NIFTY crossed the magic number of 11,000 in  the month of Jan, tanked below 10,000 in the month of Mar and now back-up and ready to conquer the high of 2018. That’s over 2,000 points move in a span of 7 months, after that a continuous correction is going on in the market till now and this correction will continue till the general elections may get over.

The factors supporting to it are high crude prices, volatile currency, US imposed trade war, Fed rate hikes so on and so forth. Domestic factors like inflation, RBI policy, state elections which includes major states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh will also keep market participants on the edge.

From an Investor’s point of view, this is a good opportunity to invest in market. As the volatility picks one should be ready to build a portfolio, as you get good stocks at lower price.

But, if you think that anybody can invest in the stock market and make good money out of their investment then you are very wrong. The reason lies in the market situation where you would be able to make good profits from the market only when the market is in a good position. You have to know how knowledgeable you are in the stock market so that you can make right decision about your investments without any problem. You would find that if you make mistakes unknowingly while choosing the best stocks, then it would be your own losses that would take a lot of time to recover your losses. In the market the best thing that you should do is to research the market fully and you also need to know the risk factor as well. You can try and make good income if you feel that you have the maximum faith in the market. Most of the investors do not try to know the insights of the market due to which they take the wrong decision and tend to lose a lot of money in the market. You have to know well how soon you can grasp the market well so that you get the maximum level of income. You might also make some mistakes and get outdated information of the market due to which you always lose your cash. So it is your responsibility to be very sincere and try to make good use of the latest information of the market with full research on any company you are going to invest.

Conclusion – Market condition is very good to invest and one can recover all losses, from previous investments. Invest in market with proper research, whichever company’s stock you are going to buy, do full research on it. Or else take advice from the expert before you make any decision on any investment.

Shubham Thakur
MBA-FP(2017-19)

Book Review on “The Warren Buffett Way” Author Robert G. Hagstrom

In 1956, Buffett started his investment partnership with $100; after thirteen years, he cashed out with $25 million. In mid-2004 his personal net worth had increased to $42.9 billion, the stock in his company was selling at $92,900 a share.

Early Influences

Warren Buffett’s approach to investing is uniquely his own, yet it rests on the bedrock of philosophies absorbed from four powerful figures: Benjamin Graham, Philip Fisher, John Burr Williams, and Charles Munger.

According to Graham: A true investment must have two qualities—some degree of safety of principal and a satisfactory rate of return. Graham reduced the concept of sound investing to a motto he called the “margin of safety”. The real test was Graham’s ability to adapt the concept for common stocks. The first approach was buying a company for less than two-thirds of its net asset value, and the second was focusing on stocks with low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. Graham said investors would benefit most if they find undervalued stocks.

Philip Fisher was another significant influence in Warren’s life. Warren learned the significance of investing in businesses having an above par potential, from Fisher. He also learned the importance for a company to have competent management. Firms that can increase profits and sales quicker than the market average impressed Fisher. He looked for companies that had high-potential products. These products were capable of allowing sales increases in the future. Such firms have higher profit margins. They’re also cost-effective and have healthy accounting controls.

William’s theory, known today as the dividend discount model, or discounted net cash-f low analysis. Buffett condensed William’s theory as: “The value of a business is determined by the net cash f lows expected to occur over the life of the business discounted at an appropriate interest rate.”

Investing principle’s

Warren Buffett ignored the stock market all through his career. As per Warren, buying shares in a firm and buying the firm are same. He buys firms which he knows well. Firm should hold positive potential for long run. Warren Buffett evaluates the managers on three dimensions rationality, candor and independent thinking. Management should operate in logical tenets. Warren Buffett works with the managers who are candid with their shareholders and to their employees. According to Warren, we should check the return on equity not the earning per share. We should always look for the firm which have excellent profit margin. We should look to owner’s earnings to get the true reflection of a value. We should buy the business when it at good discount relative to its value. According to Buffett, diversification serves as protection against ignorance. The more knowledge you have about your company, the less risk you are likely taking. Choose the best business available when managing the portfolio. There’s no need to dive
rsify it widely. Also, it’s not compulsory to cover all major sectors. Hold onto businesses you understand most and perform well.

Manish Thakur
(MBA-FA 2018-20)

The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham: A Synopsis

The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham authored the book The Intelligent Investor which was first published in the year 1939. The book eventually gained fame as the bible of the stock market. Graham’s disciple Warren Buffett has been quoted, “I read the first edition of this book early in 1950 when I was nineteen. I thought then that it was by far the best book about investing ever written. I still think it is.”

The book is a lengthy read and the revised version comprises of modern commentary and references for each of the 20 chapters. Since the original work is about 80 years old, certain topics such as interest rates and time-sensitive subjects show the sign of age. However, the crux and fundamentals of the book are equally relevant in the modern day investing.

The book covers various topics and is to a large extent an exhaustive list of major and minor issues to be considered for the fundamental analysis approach of investing. In spite of a long list of topics, the major focus of the book revolves around the three concepts, namely,

Enterprising vs Defensive investor: Investors are categorized as either “enterprising” or “defensive”. The approach in investing differs for each of the categories.

The enterprising investor: An enterprising investor should see their investments like they’d see other business.

The defensive investor: Not every investor has the time to view the investments in the light of analyzing the business, such investors are categorized as defensive investors and are suggested to follow a defensive strategy which includes aspects of conservative investment which require little effort in portfolio management, research, selection and monitoring of individual securities and overall portfolio.

The margin of safety: “We say that to have a true investment there must be present a true margin of safety. And a true margin of safety is one that can be demonstrated by figures, by persuasive reasoning, and by reference to a body of actual experience.”

Graham describes that there are two different prices of a stock, namely:

1. The price Mr. Market believes its worth. It is the price at which the stock is selling on the market.
2. The worth of the stock as per the investor. This worth is referred to as the “intrinsic value”.

The goal of the investor is to buy the stock at a price far below the intrinsic value. This gives a margin of safety thus limiting the downside.

The concept of intrinsic value is highly subjective and differs from investor to investor. There’s no fixed way to calculate this value and there are many variables which are largely out of control. Thus, the margin of safety can be said to guarantee a higher chance of profit than that of loss but it doesn’t eliminate the chance of losing altogether.

Mr. Market: Graham tells a story of a businessman called Mr. Market, who is the investor’s business partner. Mr. Market approaches the investor each day with either of the two offers “to buy the investor’s stake in the business” or “to sell his stake in the business to the investor”.

Further, Mr. Market is described as an emotional man whose enthusiasm and despair affects his willingness to sell/buy the stake. As a result, his offer price to buy/sell the stake is higher on the days he is jubilant whereas the offer to buy/sell the stake is low on days he is depressed.

In such a situation an intelligent investor shall opt to “Buy low and sell high” thereby making the most out of the situation. Thus an intelligent investor should do business with Mr. Market only to his advantage. Thus, the key to profitable investment is to stay alert and ready when a favorable offer comes up.

THE KEY TAKEAWAYS: The extensive reading provides many important lessons for an intelligent approach in investing. The key takeaways from the book are mentioned as under;

The three principles of intelligent investing: These principles are often referred to as the key to value investing. They are as follows:

1. An intelligent investor always analyses the long-term evolution and management principles of a company before investing.

2. An intelligent investor always protects him- or herself from losses by diversifying investments.

3. An intelligent investor never looks for crazy profits but focuses on safe and steady returns.

Do not ever trust Mr. Market: The analogy wherein Graham personifies the entire stock market as a single person called Mr. Market, time and again mentions that how Mr. Market shall try and lure the investors by offering various prices for different stocks. Graham suggests that the best way to deal with Mr. Market is to avoid all his offers as he doesn’t seem to be very clear, highly unpredictable and extremely moody. Thus, an intelligent investor must rely on his research and should resist Mr. Market’s allurements.

Formula investing (Dollar cost averaging): This refers to a consistent approach to investing wherein a fixed amount of money is invested in a predefined portfolio at regular intervals irrespective of the market condition at the point of investment. Over time such an investment results in an average return as it smooths out the market fluctuations.

Approach to Value Investing: The focus of a value investor should be more on the operating performance and the dividends of the firm they own rather than the shifts in their stock prices. Also, the investors must realize their rights and ownership and should employ them seriously and consistently.

The book boasts of some great quotations, some of the notable ones are listed as under:

“On the other hand, investing is a unique kind of casino—one where you cannot lose in the end, so long as you play only by the rules that put the odds squarely in your favor.”

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”

“People who invest make money for themselves; people who speculate make money for their brokers.”

“Investment is most intelligent when it is most business-like.”

“The genuine investor in common stocks does not need a great equipment of brains and knowledge, but he does need some unusual qualities of character.”

“The intelligent investor (needs) an ability to resist the blan¬d¬ish¬ments of salesmen offering new com¬mon-stock issues during bull markets.”

“It is amazing to see how many capable businessmen try to operate in Wall Street with complete disregard of all the sound principles through which they have gained success in their own un¬der¬tak¬ings.”

“Some of these issues may prove excellent buys – a few years later when nobody wants them and they can be had at a small fraction of their true worth.”

“A prime test of the competent analyst is his power to distinguish between important and unimportant facts and figures in a given situation.”

Therefore, it can be concluded that the book The Intelligent Investor is indeed a culmination of guiding principles. It enlightens both amateur investors as well as the seasoned ones for the purpose of value investing.

ZURISHA AFTAB
MBA-FA(2017-19)

A Random Walk Down Wall Street

What is a Random Walk? A random walk is one in which future steps or directions cannot be predicted on
the basis of past history. Academics parry these tactics by obfuscating the random-walk theory with three versions (the “weak,”the “semi-strong,” and the “strong”) and by creating their own theory, called the new investment technology. The first, the firm foundation, theory suggests that the valuation of an asset is based on the intrinsic value, and the investors could win on the fluctuations around this intrinsic or real value. The second, castles in the air, theory argues that investors should act in response to crowd’s expectations. The idea is explained by Keynes’ example of picking the six prettiest faces out of a hundred that are going to win the price. Here, the investor does not have to calculate the real value of the corporation; he has to predict what the average opinion is likely to be. What is more, the author of the book suggests that both theories work in practice, but in different time frames.

The second, third and fourth chapters show the historical examples of market price overvaluation (Tulip-Bulb Craze, the South Sea Bubble, and the Wall Street Crash of 1929), speculative Movements from the 1960s through the 1990s (the “Tronics” boom, the conglomerate boom, the Bubble in Concept stocks, Nifty Fifty, the biotechnology and property bubbles) and finally the largest bubble of all – overvaluation due to dot-com boom. The examples are discussed in order to point out that well often the valuation of assets is defined by the psychological factors, such as madness of people, which leads to overvaluation and subsequent price-drops. The dozen examples confirm that market efficiency is not a coincidence. The author’s main idea through the whole book is that markets are efficient, and when the inefficiencies (all mentioned above crazes)occur, it will not take a long time for the market to go back to its natural stage of efficiency. Thus, he goes to explanation of the commonly accepted investment models and techniques, pointing out their limited ability to predict something in terms of market’s “random walk”.

The next three chapters are concerned with technical and fundamental analyses for prediction of the future value of stocks. The author gives explanation to two most used on Wall Street techniques. Technical analysis studies the performance of the market prices based on the historical data. The investors use complex charts and forecasting models based on trends to speculate on predicted performance. Contrary to technical analysis, a fundamental study evaluates the health of the business by careful examination of financial statements, market performance and competitiveness of the financial entity. The author gives a favor to the second option for predictions of the assets’ prices as far as the technical analysis cannot make reasonable predictions in frames of the random-walk theory. On the other hand, the fundamental analysis looks at a broader range of data, which allows formulating a complex view on the company as a market-player. However, even the most sophisticated approach may have serious flaws, such as unpredictable events (like 9/11 tragedy), unreliable financial data (like Enron’s bankruptcy), human failings and more. In reality, financial analysts may have a minimal advantage due to advanced and regular access to valuable information and materials.

Chapters 8 and 9 discuss the modern portfolio theory. The basic idea is that people should diversify their portfolios of assets using the findings of Harry Markowitz. The economist discovered that portfolios with risky stocks could be organized in such a way that the portfolio as a whole could have less risk than the individual assets in it. The author argues in favor of this approach providing the practical examples of the reduced risk in well-diversified portfolios (the portfolio of 50 equal-sized US stocks, the international diversified portfolio, including the stocks of emerging markets or even the portfolio with various classes of assets). However, in chapter 9 Malkiel introduces the capital asset pricing model as a framework to explain the fact that diversification cannot eliminate all risk. Therefore, the associated with the portfolio or asset risk can be divided into systematic and non-systematic risk. Whereas non-systematic risk can be diversified by wise portfolio management, systematic (or so-called beta) risk cannot be diversified. It is used as a tool to evaluate the return. The only way to expect the higher long-run investment returns is to bear the greater beta-risk. Chapter 10 provides an outlook to behavioral finance that applies emotional and cognitive biases of people to their investment decisions. From the behavioral point of view, Malkiel learns that long term investing in hot-assets does not make any sense. In addition, careful investor should not over trade by selling promising stocks. Thus, Malkiel advises to sell only losers-stocks.

The next three chapters give the author’s practical advice on investment decisions. Specifically, the author encourages ensuring that the investor is properly insured. Then, he offers investing mostly into tax-sheltered accounts. Regarding the investment instruments, Malkiel believes that in the long run, it is evident, that stocks will produce more return, than bonds yield, and beat the level of inflation. However, for the any shorter than a decade period, the expected returns are random and depend mostly on the risk taken by investors. Therefore, for the short goals, the investor should tend to a diversified portfolio with investments in risk-free assets, like bonds and cash. This is the main conclusion of the previous practical and theoretical analysis of the financial markets. Finally, the last chapter “Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street” gives a summary on the whole book and suggests the concrete steps to investors. For those investors who lack analyzing skills, Malkiel suggests investing in an index fund. Otherwise, for do-it-yourself investors, he offers to look at companies with consistent growth, pay for stock no more than firm foundation value, guess the future trends and trade as little as possible.

To sum up, the book “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” is a useful guide for both students, who study Finance, and professional investors and analysts. In my view, the book does not contain the innovative ideas or theories in investing; however, it explains the existing approaches and views on investment opportunities in an easy and comprehensive way. The prompt examples and investment history overview give a complex view on investing as a science and a real life activity at the same time. Besides the summary of the world’s most popular investment theories and practices, the author gives precious advice for individual investors that sound convincing from the mouth of a successful investor and economist. The simplified philosophy of is a perfect complement to a “Random Walk Down Wall Street” for those investors, who take advantage in learning successful investment experiences.
The most of the topics in this book is taught by our Sir Mr. Kushal Bhateja and I thank him from the bottom of my heart.

Shubham Pandey
MBA-FA(2018-20)